How the United States Saw and Sees Syria: From 2011 to 2016
Elliott Abrams, former American diplomat, lawyer and political scientist who served in foreign policy positions for President Regan and Bush, wrote on the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventative Action a comprehensive plan to deal with the situation in Syria. This was written on October 24th, 2011, almost five years before today, but it is uncanny the amount of instances Mr. Abrams gets correct. He even foreshadows the civil bloodshed that might arise should the United States stall and delay action, the kind of bloodshed that we are witnessing today in 2016. I would like to focus on his Policy Innovation Memorandum No. 9 because it should serve as the backbone of what the Obama administration and future administration should act upon.
What is interesting is how he perceives the Alawite minority regime. Alawite is an area in Syria home of the Alawite Muslim minority. Despite popular belief, the Alawites are not and do not recognize themselves as Shi’a nor do they recognize the black and white Sunni Shi’a split in Islam. This is important to note as the Alawites serve the Assad regime as an elite military force and policing terror. Through their iron fist rule, Assad has been able to obtain absolute control over Syria. It is then assumed that the Alawites share most of Assad’s wealth as well. But this is not the case. The Alawites fear that if Assad should fall, the Sunni majority will rule Syria and carry out the same kind of atrocities that they, the Alawites, carried out on the Sunni population onto themselves. Indeed, this kind of thinking is not illogical, but a question can be posed, “Why sacrifice yourself for the Assad mafia that is doomed anyway?” Instead they can turn away from Assad, and face less harsh penalties within the International Court of Justice. This kind of defection by Alawite generals and soldiers would cripple the Syrian Armed Forces’ leadership and could have prevented a sizable military stand-off, a scenario that I had outlined in my first blog post. Unfortunately, this scenario did not play out. The Syrian Armed Forces continued on its rampage of firing on peaceful demonstrators, dropping of barrel bombs on civilians, and even targeting towns with chemical weapons. In an attempt to flee these war crimes, they have committed more heinous offenses.
Perhaps they have traversed too far down the path of terror to think that their minority group can be redeemed. I think otherwise. The United States must reopen channels of communication with the Alawites and show them just how futile the fight that has been going on these past five years has been. The Alawite’s economic resources are dwindling as stricter sanctions have been imposed by Turkey and other NATO allied countries. It is time to offer the Alawite minorities a way out of the situation, effectively isolating Assad and ending the Syrian Civil War. They should be offered a chance at rebuilding their crumbling nation through the efforts of the Sunni majority as well. This is by no means the conventional answer that many Presidential candidates are campaigning for, but I see it as a key piece of the puzzle that many politicians, including President Obama has overlooked.
Right now the United States stance on Syria is:
- Forming a coalition to fight ISIS;
- Arming rebel groups to fight Assad and ISIS;
- Continuing the airstrike campaign started by the Obama Administration;
- Arming the Turkish groups in fighting ISIS.
These should continue to be implemented, but with Assad out of the picture, the United States, and the world, would have a better chance at eliminating ISIS and ending their reign of terror.
http://www.state.gov/p/nea/rls/rm/216163.htm
http://www.cfr.org/syria/american-options-syria/p26226
