Kenyan interests in Somalia

During the summer of 2011, Al-Shabaab militants orchestrated several attacks in Kenya – fueled in large part by irredentist claims over Kenya’s majority Somali Northeastern province. Most prominent of these attacks was a massacre in the coastal town of Lamu and the kidnapping of two Spanish volunteers in the Dadaab refugee camp working for Doctors Without Borders. To protect Kenya’s security and vital tourism industry, the Kenyan Defense Forces initiated an incursion into Southern Somalia to directly combat Al-Shabaab. This operation was referred to as Linda Nchi – Swahili for ‘protect the country’ – and began on the 16th of October 2011 with the backing of the then-Transitional Federal Government of Somalia.

However in the four and a half years since Operation Linda Nchi began, it has become apparent that Kenya’s interests in Somalia extend far beyond simply engaging Al-Shabaab. In fact, the terrorist organization’s attacks on Kenyan soil offered a convenient and pressing reason for the government to expand its economic affluence and actively construct a future Somali state to protect Kenya’s political interests. Kenya’s intent is to create and bolster an autonomous government in Southern Somalia – Jubaland – to border Kenya’s north. A Jubaland government under Kenyan influence would act as a buffer zone to the spillover of religiously motivated extremism or the drug and arms trade from Somalia.

Moreover, the Lamu Port Southern Sudan Ethiopian Transport corridor (LAPSSET) is the primary economic motivation for the Kenya’s Jubaland project. LAPSSET is a 25 billion dollar venture that will link the Kenyan port of Lamu to oil-rich South Sudan via Ethiopia. In 2013, Kenya also negotiated for the construction of a 16 billion dollar and 2000 km pipeline transporting South Sudan and Uganda’s oil to the Lamu port for export via the Indian Ocean. Given Lamu’s geographical proximity to the border with Somalia and the degree of investment in its port, the Jubaland project is of critical importance to Kenya’s economic interests.

In 2011, when the KDF made its initial incursion into Somalia and unilaterally joined AMISOM, a weary USA and EU met the Kenyan government with reproach. However following a short period of negotiation and reminders to respect international law, the US has since been offering a great deal of military assistance to Kenya’s mission in the form of arms and airstrikes.

All things considered, the KDF presence in Somalia to bolster the pre-existing AMISOM forces has been quite the success. Al-Shabaab has been driven out from the capital, Mogadishu, and has lost the majority of its territory to a slowly emerging central government backed by AMISOM. But the terrorist organization has responded to this aggression by orchestrating deadly attacks on Kenyan soil such as the siege of Nairobi’s Westgate mall in 2013 – where there were 67 casualties – and the attack on Garissa’s University that left 152 dead in April of 2015.

Al-Shabaab has also begun directly attacking the military bases of Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, looting their arms and intelligence. In January of this year, the group enacted their most menacing attack to date – a direct ambush of the KDF barracks that left over 80 soldiers dead.

Since the attack on the KDF base, local media and a discontent public have openly called for the government to withdraw their forces from Somalia to curb the financial outlay and ever-increasing death toll of the project. As Kenya approaches their 2017 elections, this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Sources:

Gettleman, J. (2016, January 20). Kenya Rattled as Shabab Turns Sights on Somalia Military Targets. Retrieved March 12, 2016, from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/world/africa/shabab-attacks-somalia-kenya.html?_r=0

Ngirachu, J. (2016, January 20). Questions for KDF commanders over deadly Somalia attack. Retrieved March 12, 2016, fromhttp://www.nation.co.ke/news/Questions-for-KDF-commanders-over-deadly-Somalia-attack/-/1056/3040498/-/pluwcxz/-/index.html

Why Kenya Is Fighting In Somalia - New African Magazine. (2012, April). Retrieved March 12, 2016, fromhttp://newafricanmagazine.com/why-kenya-is-fighting-in-somalia/