The Future of Afghanistan
In an environment where the immediate threats of today claim most of the resources and bandwidth of international and domestic forces, the question of what future holds is difficult to answer as it is hard to predict tomorrow.
Many factors, such as the upcoming elections within both the United States and Afghanistan, will significantly shape what the next few years will look like. The rotation of influential decision makers in both countries will hopefully conjure an end to this long and destructive war, and ultimately, the transition to full Afghan political autonomy.
Nevertheless, beyond politics, it will be the economy, challenges to leadership by terrorists, and resilience of the country’s expanding democratic institutions--such as its electoral commission--that will play decisive roles in the vitality of Afghanistan’s future.
Elections for Afghanistan’s parliament and district council were deferred but are now slated to be held on October 15th, 2016. Concurrently, the United States will also be electing a new president this November and it has been shown that each candidate has distinct opinions about Obama’s decision to retain troops in Afghanistan. Bernie Sanders believes that the US should speed up the withdrawal of the troops, while Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, has voiced her support for the President’s decision. On the republican side, Donald Trump had initially stated that the US invasion of Afghanistan was a mistake but later rescinded his comment by agreeing with retaining the 5,000 troops.
The US election results will undoubtedly have a significant global impact, but they will be building off of an already formidable platform that Secretary of State John Kerry has spent the past few years building. During his tenure, Kerry has garnered a strong relationship with Afghanistan, brokering a deal after the contested 2014 presidential election, which instated Ashraf Ghani as President and Abdullah Abdullah as Chief Executive Officer. Kerry has also vocalized US commitment to Afghanistan and that we will continue to work with its leaders in maintaining a benign relationship. His legacy will act as a navigating guide to the next US leadership team as they see the transition of Afghanistan autonomy through.
The handover of power that will occur in the near future will also be a key influencer in the success of Afghanistan’s economy, military operations, and developing democratic institutions. According to the World Bank, “the fiscal stability is critical to steer Afghanistan’s economy back to recovery and growth.” It is evident that the transition to more autonomous control of its political and security systems has placed a stress on Afghanistan’s economy. Economic growth began to slow in 2013, decreasing from 9% from 2003-2012 to 3.7% from 2013, 2014 fiscal year. The World Bank projects a gradual recovery for 2016 and 2017, but this is conditional on improvements in security which can help reestablish confidence in the economy. Moreover, the economy and how it’s handled can create a space for democratic institutions to expand and solidify. A strong economy would safeguard elections and instead insure their legitimacy.
Currently, Afghanistan’s poverty rate is 49 percent. In a speech at the special Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board Meeting in Kabul, President Ghanis said that the top priority of the Afghanistan is peace and stability against the terrorist groups that threaten the country: al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban.
It is hard to predict a distant future in these conditions but progress is not seen nor made all at once. The goal of both the US and Afghanistan is to have an autonomous Afghan government. Many obstacles stand in the way however of obtaining that future, but in evaluating the track that the two countries have committed to, an optimistic outlook looks promising; it doesn’t just rest on the sincere hopefulness of an enthusiastic 18 year old but actually stands on strong ground.
Sources:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2015/05/02/increasing-fiscal-stresses-against-the-backdrop-of-a-slowing-economy-and-a-deteriorating-security-environment-demand-solid-reforms-to-restore-fiscal-stability-and-reinstate-investor-and-consumer-confidence
https://www.khaama.com/ghani-terror-groups-including-al-qaeda-taliban-and-isis-threaten-afghanistan-0535
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/afghanistan/overview#1
http://thediplomat.com/2016/01/afghanistan-sets-election-date-or-maybe-not/
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/world/asia/american-soldier-killed-fighting-the-taliban-in-helmand.html?_r=0
https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=how%20long%20does%20the%20president%20hold%20office%20in%20afghanistan
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/23/politics/john-kerry-ash-carter-afghanistan-president/
http://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-on-afghanistan/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/17/hillary-clinton-supports-obama-keep-troops-in-afghanistan
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30323743
http://time.com/3001703/kerry-afghanistan-civil-war/
http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/20/politics/donald-trump-afghanistan-war-not-a-mistake/
