The Future Prospects of Sino-Japanese Relations
PC: Getty Images
There are reasons to be both pessimistic and optimistic about the future of China-Japan relations; the obstacles and reasons for tensions are very clear, yet both parties have so far shown reluctance to resolve these obstacles. Moreover, as I have emphasized in my previous blogs, the stakes cannot get any higher. China and Japan, geographical and cultural neighbors with currently the world’s second-highest and third-highest economies, represent very two sets of very different political and social systems. Good relations between the two countries in the future would mean stability in one of the most important geopolitical regions in the world.
As an authoritarian regime, the Chinese government sometimes manipulates anti-Japanese sentiments amongst the Chinese public in order to re-direct the public’s grievances against the government against an external enemy. If the Chinese government and the Chinese public continue to express outbursts of often-violent anti-Japanese sentiments, Japan will not feel inclined to improve its relations or reach reconciliation with China. Therefore, the future of Sino-Japanese relations depends a lot on whether or not the Chinese government could actually resolve the grievances of the people instead of trying to stir up anti-Japanese expressions as a way to avoid dealing with its domestic problems.
China’s rise as an economic and military power is almost paralleled by Japan’s economic decline starting from the late 1990s. This has prompted some Japanese nationalists and right-wing politicians to resort to historical revisionism or the glorification of Japan’s past as a colonial and major military power in order to enforce Japan as a relevant and important regional and world power. However, the revisionist and apologist attitudes of some ultra right-wing Japanese nationalists have been a major destabilizing factor in Japan’s relations with China, drawing criticism from not only Japan’s former wartime enemies but also the international community. Hence, the future of Sino-Japanese relations also is reliant on whether or not Japan can confront China’s rise fairly and constructively.
However, I think that historical tensions, which have always been a political instrument for both parties and a major obstacle to reconciliation, could diminish in the future as younger generations of leaders who have less personal associations with World War II emerge onto the political stage. This would reduce the ability of both nations to manipulate history as a political tool and obstacle to friendly Sino-Japanese relations.
Sources:
https://www.aei.org/publication/the-bleak-future-of-sino-japanese-relations/
http://www.isaworld.com/news/?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45&cHash=2801e5f23cc48c4b670d4145b6e3bdf7
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/opinion/shinzo-abe-and-japans-history.html?_r=0
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/08/14/national/politics-diplomacy/chinese-media-voice-moderate-criticism-abes-wwii-statement/
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2012/09/anti-japan-protests-in-china/100370/
